Game of the Year 2025: Analyzing the Top Contenders and Potential Surprises

Forecasting Gaming's Premier Award: The Battle for GOTY 2025

A Wide-Open Field: The Unexpected Shift in the 2025 Game Awards Landscape

The eleventh iteration of the Game Awards, slated for December 11, presents an unusually open contest for its highest honor. The highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto 6, initially projected as a likely victor, has been deferred to 2026. This postponement has created a less predictable environment for the gaming industry's most prestigious accolade, often dubbed the \"Oscars of gaming.\"

Decoding Success: How Game Awards Winners Are Chosen

The selection process for the Game Awards involves a broad coalition of international video game journalists, with an additional 10% influence from public voting. Key indicators for Game of the Year success typically include stellar Metacritic scores (ideally above 90), a preference for role-playing and action-adventure genres, and strong narrative elements. Historically, independent and multiplayer titles face a tougher uphill battle for recognition compared to major single-player releases. These established patterns have previously enabled accurate forecasts, including last year's triumph of Astro Bot.

The Evolving Race: Current Contenders and Future Challengers

Our current projections for the six most probable Game of the Year nominees in 2025 focus exclusively on titles already released. Unlike the film industry, where major releases are often previewed extensively, the true impact and quality of video games remain uncertain until their official launch. This list will undergo continuous revisions throughout the year as new titles hit the market. Additionally, we'll spotlight potential future contenders and some unexpected dark horses in the 2025 GOTY competition. A recent update on July 21 saw Donkey Kong Bananza surge into the top contenders, driven by strong reviews and its status as a Switch 2 exclusive. Concurrently, Death Stranding 2 experienced a slight dip in its standing, while Clair Obscur maintained its formidable lead. This shift also saw Indiana Jones and the Great Circle exit the top six, having been a long shot given its late 2024 release.

Leading the Charge: The Current Front-Runners for Game of the Year

The current leading titles for Game of the Year include a compelling mix of critically acclaimed releases. These games have garnered significant attention and high praise, positioning them as the ones to watch in the lead-up to the awards ceremony.

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 – A Standout RPG with Unassailable Momentum

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 stands as a top contender, heralded for its critical acclaim, compelling narrative, and exceptional performance. As a thematically rich yet enjoyable role-playing game, it boasts impressive production values and cutting-edge graphics, embodying the qualities of a Game of the Year winner. Its remarkable achievement, especially from a relatively small debut team at Sandfall Interactive, further enhances its appeal. With strong market predictions favoring its success, it remains a formidable candidate. Although it's a significant achievement, its relatively niche audience among critics and the broader gaming community will need to expand to maintain its conversation beyond its initial launch. Despite its success on Game Pass, questions linger about its ultimate reach to secure the top award. Nevertheless, its comprehensive design, continued player engagement, and dominant position in prediction markets underscore its strong and stable lead.

Donkey Kong Bananza: A New Challenger with High Critical Acclaim

Donkey Kong Bananza has emerged as a significant contender, boasting impressive ratings (90+ on both Metacritic and OpenCritic), a crucial benchmark for Game of the Year consideration. While Nintendo platformers often face the challenge of being taken for granted, Bananza distinguishes itself with innovative destruction mechanics, a revitalized Donkey Kong as a central figure, and its role as a flagship title for the new Switch 2 console, adding a compelling layer of novelty. Despite its critical success, family-oriented platformers traditionally struggle for Game of the Year recognition due to perceived thematic simplicity. While Astro Bot defied this trend last year, a consecutive win for the genre appears improbable, and Nintendo's consistent excellence can sometimes lead to its games being overlooked in major awards. As a new entrant, Donkey Kong Bananza has made a considerable impact and is expected to sustain its momentum as more players embrace the Switch 2 platform.

Death Stranding 2: On the Beach – A Visionary Epic with Mixed Reception

Hideo Kojima's latest creation, Death Stranding 2: On the Beach, builds on its polarizing predecessor with a grander yet more accessible experience. This technically brilliant, immersive, and ambitious title, backed by Sony, possesses all the characteristics of a major Game of the Year contender. Coming from one of the most celebrated auteurs in the video game industry, its pedigree is undeniable. However, its position as an \"establishment\" choice, especially when contrasted with the underdog narrative of Clair Obscur, could be a point of contention for some jurors. The close ties between Kojima and Geoff Keighley, the host of the Game Awards, might also raise concerns among some voters. Since its release, Death Stranding 2's review scores have slightly tempered, currently resting at 89 on both Metacritic and OpenCritic. It remains uncertain whether the game has significantly expanded its appeal beyond its dedicated fan base.

Blue Prince: An Indie Gem Capturing Critical Acclaim

Blue Prince, an indie title, faces the inherent challenge of breaking into the highly competitive Game of the Year category at The Game Awards. However, it stands out as a strong candidate, buoyed by overwhelming critical praise and an impressive Metascore of 92. Its widespread popularity within the critical and voter communities, coupled with its profound mystery, intricate puzzles, and captivating narrative, are expected to sustain its relevance in discussions. Despite its compelling qualities, Blue Prince is notably demanding and complex compared to typical Game Awards nominees. Previous indie contenders like Stray and Inside were more accessible, while Animal Well, a similarly enigmatic title from last year, did not secure a nomination. Furthermore, the emergence of other highly anticipated indie games this year, such as Hades 2, could force Blue Prince to vie for a limited number of indie slots. As the current frontrunner among independent titles, Blue Prince's position remains secure unless another breakthrough indie game emerges.

Split Fiction: A Co-op Masterpiece with Proven Success

Split Fiction, developed by Hazelight, is a strong Game of the Year contender, bolstered by a critical consensus reflected in its 90+ ratings on both Metacritic and OpenCritic. Its pedigree is further solidified by the studio's previous success, as their game It Takes Two secured the GOTY award in 2021 and has since amassed a significant following. As a story-driven action-adventure, Split Fiction aligns with a genre historically favored by the Game Awards jury. However, the previous win by It Takes Two might work against it if the jury seeks to reward a different type of experience this year. While It Takes Two's strength lay in its deeply personal narrative about divorce, Split Fiction has been more recognized for its innovative design rather than its abstract and at times overextended virtual reality storyline. Despite a recent decline in conversation, Split Fiction maintains a strong position due to its widespread popularity and unique cooperative gameplay. Its robust critical reception and enduring appeal make it a resilient contender.

Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 – A Hardcore RPG with Niche Appeal

Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 emerges as a potential dark horse, mirroring the trajectory of last year's Black Myth: Wukong. This title represents an ambitious success from an independent developer, catering to the strong demand among core gamers for expansive, uncompromising single-player adventures. As a realistic medieval RPG featuring a compelling narrative, it has earned a respectable Metascore of 88, placing it squarely within the Game Awards' preferred genre. Its historical setting and strong storytelling draw parallels to past GOTY winners like The Witcher 3, making it a compelling candidate. However, like Black Myth: Wukong, its developer, Warhorse, faces political controversy due to past comments from its founder. More practically, the game's challenging nature and time commitment may limit its broader adoption among journalists and jurors, despite its solid sales performance. As an early entrant, Deliverance 2 has naturally seen its initial momentum wane. Nonetheless, it remains a beloved title among its dedicated fan base, who continue to champion its merits.

Hidden Gems: Unexpected Contenders and Underdogs

Beyond the top contenders, several games could surprise and contend for nominations or even the top prize. These "dark horses" often gain momentum through word-of-mouth or strong critical re-evaluation after their initial release. Avowed, Obsidian Games' traditional fantasy RPG, had a subdued initial critical reception but has gained significant traction through strong word-of-mouth, appealing to players with its reliable, old-fashioned qualities. With excellent writing in a favored genre, it represents a classic Game Awards dark horse. Indiana Jones and the Great Circle by MachineGames, despite being released just before the 2024 Game Awards, remains a sentimental favorite among critics, largely due to its unexpectedly strong quality. Despelote, an Ecuadorian indie game about soccer and childhood, has achieved minor critical sensation with high praise from key reviewers. However, it requires a viral push to significantly increase its cultural footprint and is unlikely to surpass Blue Prince as the leading indie contender. Monster Hunter Wilds, Capcom's latest installment in the RPG series, launched to critical acclaim and impressive sales. However, over time, its community and public opinion have become less favorable, with many now preferring 2018's World. The Alters, 11 Bit Studios' compelling and unsettling game about self-cloning for planetary survival, lacks universal critical backing but has sparked significant discussion, a valuable asset in the GOTY race.

On the Horizon: Anticipated Releases with Game of the Year Potential

Several upcoming titles are highly anticipated and could significantly impact the Game of the Year landscape upon their release. Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, Retro Studios' long-awaited return to the first-person sci-fi adventures of Samus, is a strong contender. The Metroid Prime sub-series is critically adored, consistently achieving Metacritic scores above 90, and Metroid Dread's 2021 GOTY nomination signals its strong potential. Assuming its release from early access this year, Hades 2, Supergiant's roguelike sequel, is poised to lead the indie category, potentially seeking vindication for the original game's perceived oversight at the 2020 awards. Double Fine's upcoming game, Keeper, set for an October release, remains largely a mystery, save for its premise of a sentient lighthouse with a bird companion and a lack of dialogue. However, based on preliminary art and the success of Psychonauts 2's nomination, it holds promise as a contender. Ghost of Yōtei, Sony's open-world samurai adventure and a sequel to Ghost of Tsushima, is another strong candidate. Its bespoke feel and growing reputation could help it surpass similarly themed titles like Assassin's Creed Shadows. Finally, Hollow Knight: Silksong, Team Cherry's long-awaited sequel to its 2017 indie hit, is expected to make a significant impact at the Game Awards, partly due to the original game's limited recognition and the jury's likely desire to retrospectively acknowledge its influence.